Prices have moved up and down with tensions and unrest in the Middle East. Oil prices were moving and grain prices with that oil price.

As a ceasefire between Israel and Iran looked to be under way on Tuesday, grain prices fell. Unfortunately, war and unrest have a big impact on grain markets. Away from this, the fundamentals still affect prices and harvest is now under way in some countries.

The euro gained strength against the dollar again this week, which makes European grain less attractive to buy.

The December French wheat price climbed to €220.25/t on Thursday of last week and closed last week at €219.50/t. On Monday, it dropped to €216/t and on Tuesday evening fell to €212/t. Maize prices moved similarly.

Growers should now look at how crops are doing around the world and how this might affect prices.

The winter wheat harvest in the United States was reported to be 19% complete as of 22 June, some 9% behind the five-year average for the time of year.

MARS bulletin

The European Union released its Crop Monitoring report for EU countries and some neighbouring countries. Its forecast for total cereal yields increased by 1% from last month. Cereal yield is estimated up 6% from the five-year average.

Wheat yield is up 6% and barley yield is forecast up 10% from the five-year average.

Grain maize yields are estimated up by 5%. The report stated: “Overall good yield prospects at EU level are sustained by exceptionally high expectations in Spain, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and also the Baltics.

“A persisting water deficit is increasingly affecting yields in western Belgium, central France, eastern Germany, western Poland and Hungary, particularly for spring and summer crops.”

However, yield reductions due to excess rainfall are expected in parts of Italy and root crops are under pressure from pest outbreaks in Germany.

Low rainfall has affected crops in France, many of which are at the grain filling stage. Low rainfall in Germany and Poland does not look to be affecting crops as much. Rapeseed and turnip rape yields were estimated up 9% from 2024 and 1% up on the five-year average.

Native prices

Dairygold and Tirlán both came out with harvest prices over the last week and both were matched on base prices.

The base prices offered at 20% moisture do not include co-op bonuses. They were €185/t for green barley and €195/t for green wheat. Oilseed rape was reported at €460/t to €465/t.