Irish Farmers Journal analysis on grain prices shows tillage farmers are set to barely break even on winter barley this year.

The winter barley harvest is mostly complete, and crops look to have averaged around 3.7t/ac around the country so far, according to agronomists’ reports.

Teagasc places total variable costs for winter barley at €1,648/ha. Taking the average yield at 9.14t/ha (3.7t/ac) and the most recent base price of €185/t, this brings in €1,691/ha, delivering a profit of just €43/ha (€17/ac), plus a straw income of €250/ha assuming farmers sell to at least match the Straw Incorporation Measure’s income.

Including a co-op bonus of €10/t brings profit to €134/ha (€54/ac), plus straw income. As small as the profit is at these figures, on rented land this means that farmers are breaking even or at a loss.

In more positive news, Rory Deverell of Black Silo Commodity Consulting told a Laois IFA grain meeting on Tuesday night that grain prices should be at rock bottom by now if they are going to go there.

While he does not expect prices to fall much further, Deverell explained that grain farmers around the world are storing their grain, which is stabilising prices, but will also prevent a big lift as when prices go up those farmers will release some of that grain onto the market.