The seasonal peak in farmgate sheep prices has varied from the norm in recent years but on average the Easter trade has remained near the peak of prices.

Supplies remain tight across important markets in Europe such as France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands.

Figures reported by the European Commission showed sheep slaughterings running up to 15% to 20% lower in January 2025 compared to January 2024.

While reports indicate the scale of the reduction has eased since then, there is still a sizeable shortfall in production with breeding ewe numbers reducing on the back of the bluetongue virus and flocks contracting or exiting the sector.

This is reflected in lamb prices in France averaging €10.56/kg for the week ending 5 April 2025. The price paid to French producers is €1.06/kg ahead of the corresponding week in 2024. The Irish farmgate sheep price is the second highest price in the weekly sheep price dashboard published by Bord Bia. At an average of €8.96/kg it is running 27c/kg higher on average than 12 months ago.

It should be noted that a high percentage of sheep sales in Ireland also receive a flat rate top-up on the sale of livestock or other outputs such as milk. The payment is designed to compensate farmers who are not registered for VAT for the VAT they incur for farming costs.

This stands at 5.1% since 1 January 2025 and when included moves the Irish farmgate sheep price to €9.42/kg for the week of 5 April 2025. The price included in the table is provided by the Department of Agriculture to Bord Bia.

Spanish price

The traditional differential between Spanish lamb prices and French prices has been re-established in recent weeks and stands at about €1.90/kg.

This differential had reduced to less than 80c/kg at certain periods over the last six months. Spanish production is currently boosted by production from sheep milking flocks and will ease back in the coming months.

While many European markets are enjoying higher returns than 12 months ago, British farmgate prices have not experienced the same lift. As can be seen in Table 1, the latest price recorded is €8.48/kg which equates to a reduction of some €1.20/kg compared to the corresponding period in 2024.

Farmgate prices in Britain have been stuck in gear for several weeks.

During this time Irish prices have increased by upwards of 50c/kg leaving prices running significantly ahead of our closest competing market.

The Agriculture Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), which is similar to Bord Bia in the UK, reports that the trade in Britain continues to be pressurised by heavier-weight hoggets in the system.

It reports that the latest estimated sheep kill increased 10% on the week to just under 249,000 head. This, it says, lifts the estimated sheep slaughter to 58,300 head higher. This is in sharp contrast to Ireland where the sheep kill is running over 150,000 head, or 22% lower, than in 2024.

The AHDB says that demand for lamb remains less positive citing that overall retail volumes remain in annual decline. “However, burgers and grills have shown more positive movement recently, likely weather-related. Overall volume sales have been closer to levels seen in 2023”.

Northern Ireland

The stagnant nature of British prices and recent upward momentum in the trade in Northern Ireland has also closed the normal differential between Northern Ireland and British prices.

This tends to average in the region of the equivalent of 50c/kg but according to prices reported by the Livestock Meat Commission (LMC) is now running at just 4c/kg. Prices remain 13c/kg lower than the corresponding week in 2024.

Sheep throughput in Northern Ireland is similar to in Britain when kill figures and sheep export figures are analysed. Demand remains strong for live exports to Britain while in most weeks there is in the region of one load of 350 head exported to continental Europe.

Southern hemisphere

Prices in Europe are running upwards of €4/kg ahead of in Australia and New Zealand. While New Zealand lamb prices are running 90c/kg ahead of the corresponding period in 2024 they remain at a low ebb.

Reports from the sector point to farmers becoming increasingly dismayed at the poor returns with industry projections pointing to a further decline in the breeding ewe flock.

The New Zealand sheep sector has been hit hard in recent years by marketing challenges in China.

Part of the challenge has been a continued weakening in market share with Australia making better use of record production volumes and increasing their share of the Chinese market.

The national flock has fallen by a massive figure of over two million head in the last two years with further contraction expected. To put this in context the Irish breeding ewe flock is heading in the direction of less than 2.5m head.

Australian sheepmeat production recorded its highest level of production in 2024. The national flock has increased by almost 10m head in the last five years while there is a continued trend of farmers switching to meat production over wool production.

Sheepmeat production has increased by in excess of 100,000t in recent years with the country producing over 850,000t in 2024.

Part of the increase in production has stemmed from carcase weights rising by over 4kg in recent years, partly helped by more favourable pasture conditions and higher returns encouraging farmers to retain sheep to heavier weights.

The massive increase in production has put pressure on prices with current lamb prices at the equivalent of just €4.50/kg.

This is reducing optimism in the sector and feeding into forecasts of reduced production but in the short term, the annual kill is expected to remain high as more breeding stock is culled.

Meat and Livestock Australia, the country’s marketing board reports that Australia will be focusing more on developing market share in the UK and utilising a greater share of its new tariff-free quota which stands at 35,000t in 2025.

Short term forecasts

Short-term forecasts point to a continued contraction in the European sheep flock which should help to keep a firm floor under the trade. The bluetongue virus remains a major concern right across Europe with the threat of foot and mouth disease also lingering in the background.

Longer term there are concerns that the wide differential between European and Southern Hemisphere prices could encourage higher exports but for now a strong US market is keeping a floor under Australian sheep meat exports while a sharp decline in the New Zealand flock is continuing to reduce their export potential.