Declining sheep numbers in key lamb-producing countries is leaving global lamb supplies tight, according to Bord Bia’s sheep and livestock manager Seamus McMenamin.

Speaking to the Irish Farmers Journal at Sheep 2025 on Saturday, McMenamin suggested that the global supply-demand dynamic in sheep markets leaves lamb prices looking set to hold over the months ahead.

“I would say the outlook is fairly steady. You got a declining ewe flock here, it is the same in the UK, the same in Europe and if you look at Australia or New Zealand, their production has actually fallen back as well,” McMenamin said.

“There are long-term declines in their ewe flocks. Australia last year exported an extra 25,000t of lamb that will not be there because that came from a flock contraction.

“There is a lot less lamb around globally, but whenever you are so export-focused, you are dependent on the markets.”

The Bord Bia sheep manager stated that Ireland exporting 85% of its lamb leaves prices here exposed to the impact of moves by big players in the market globally, such as China, which buys two out of every five kilos of sheepmeat sold on international markets.

Market competition

Moves in markets like China could push more New Zealand and Australian lamb into the markets Ireland competes in, namely the continent, where demand is holding up well, he explained.

“From a market perspective, there is a steady demand for lamb in Europe. We are seeing forecasts of reduced lamb supply across Europe. Their sheep flocks are contracting by 4% or 5% as well.

“We are seeing a bit more competition from New Zealand and Australian product coming in. It is very competitively priced and consumers are more price conscious than they would have been so there is definitely pressure there from imported product.

“The latest forecasts in the UK there are for an increase in lamb production. There was super weather for lambing, it will push up their production but there is definitely more imported production going into the UK and freeing up product for export.

“We are going in there with a very similar product, similar production system, similar claims that can be made on pack and to be fair a similar price point – we are going in competing for the same customers.

“Both markets are producing a premium lamb and aiming for premium-level customers and large volume customers. No doubt about it, we are competing with them there.”