It was with considerable fanfare that US President Donald Trump announced on Friday that he had agreed a “huge deal” with the United Kingdom.

What emerged was a short document that effectively rolls back some additional tariffs imposed by the President on the UK plus a few other headline points.

It could more accurately be described as a framework for further negotiation than a comprehensive trade deal.

Among the details that were announced was that a reciprocal beef quota would be put in place. This will give both countries access to each other’s market for 13,000 tonnes of beef tariff-free.

This caused some alarm given that the vast majority of US beef is produced from cattle that have been fed growth promoting hormones which are banned in the UK and EU.

However, the UK Government largely assuaged these fears by quickly clarifying that access to the UK market was only for beef from cattle that have not been fed hormones and that there was no reduction in UK standards.

Impact of 13,000t beef quota

There is no detail on what type of beef will make up the 13,000 tonne quota, but in any case the volume is relatively small compared with beef quotas agreed in other trade deals.

The proposed Mercosur deal, for example, will give access to an additional 99,000 tonnes of South American beef at a preferential 7.5% tariff to the EU market.

As for the UK, recent deals with Australia and New Zealand give much greater access for beef (as shown in figure 1).

In the case of Australia, the quota for the first year was 35,000 tonnes rising to 110,000 tonnes after 10 years and 170,000 tonnes after 15 years.

A safeguard mechanism, which allows imports to be suspended for a period of up to 200 days if domestic prices are weak, is included between years 10 and 15 years.

For New Zealand, the level of beef access is 12,000 tonnes on year one rising to 38,820 tonnes after 10 years and 60,000 tonnes after 15 years.

Again, there is a safeguard mechanism built in between years 10 and 15.

Competition for Irish beef in UK

USDA forecast that the UK will be the fifth-largest beef-importing country in the world this year, taking up to 415,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent.

In 2024, data from AHDB, the English levy board, shows that the UK imported 240,706 tonnes (product weight) of fresh and frozen beef. Ireland supplied over 185,000 tonnes of this, almost 77% of all UK fresh and frozen beef imports in 2024.

For Irish beef producers and exporters, the UK is the main market, taking almost half of all our beef exports.

Therefore, there is something of a mutual dependence in the beef trade between Ireland and the UK and anything that opens the UK market further for alternative sources of supply is a threat.

However, compared with the huge quotas that were given to Australia and New Zealand, the potential additional competition from US imports to the UK is small.

Hormone-free

The UK have made it clear that there has been no compromise on standards, meaning that any beef from the US will be from hormone-free cattle.

Hormone-free beef production in the US is for a niche home market and specific export markets such as the EU which also bans beef that has been fed hormones in the production cycle.

The US has a 35,000 tonne tariff-free quota for hormone free beef to the EU but in 2024, US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) data shows that just 17,320 tonnes were exported to the EU and UK combined. This suggests that the even when tariff-free, the US could struggle to fill the quota available.

The requirement for hormone-free beef will remain a considerable barrier for US beef entering the UK.

This point was made by USMEF president and CEO Dan Halstrom when he issued a statement welcoming the fact that the administration made accessing the UK market as a priority.

He also pointed out that “US beef still faces numerous non-tariff barriers in the UK, and we are hopeful that these will also be addressed”.

Export opportunity for UK

As the 13,000 tonne quota is a reciprocal arrangement, the UK will also be able to export beef to the US tariff-free.

This could benefit exporters of lean manufacturing beef but what is particularly interesting is that the US are creating this quota by ringfencing 13,000 tonnes of a 65,000 tonne quota that was previously available to all countries that didn’t have a specific quota agreement.

Irish beef exporters have used this in the past but over the last couple of years, Brazil has tended to use it all in the first couple of weeks in January, such has been the volumes they are exporting to the US.

Comment – Limited additional competition

For Irish beef producers and exporters, anything that opens the UK market to alternative sources of beef imports is unwelcome.

However, to put it in context, the deal for 13,000 tonnes will have minimal impact on Irish exports. In 2016, the EU, including the UK, agreed a 50,000 tonne quota for Canadian beef imports of hormone-free beef which has never came close to being fully utilised.

This is because Canadian beef producers and exporters didn’t see it as commercially viable to produce hormone-free beef for the EU and forsake the loss in output volume.

It has been a major source of grievance with the Canadian beef trade and was the main cause of Canada–UK negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal collapsing at the beginning of last year.

Additionally, the US has particularly expensive beef at present with the herd at its lowest point since the middle of the last century. They wont have cheap beef to export anywhere and that includes the UK even if it is tariff-free.

The main threat to Irish export markets from UK trade deals is from Australia, who have been steadily growing their presence in the UK market.