EU beef imports from Mercosur at 16-year high

European Union fresh and frozen beef imports from the Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) were 56,975t in the first four months of 2025. As Figure 1 shows, this was the highest total for the first four months of the year from Mercosur in the past 16 years according to European Commission DG Agri data, which goes back to 2010.

Imports from Mercosur for the first four months of the year have only topped 50,000t on two previous occasions – in 2018 and 2019 – and they have dipped below 40,000t twice in 2011 and 2012.

Farmgate beef prices increased at unprecedented levels in the first four months of 2025, not just in Ireland and the UK, but throughout the EU as well.

This meant that the EU was a lucrative market for beef-exporting countries, particularly those with relatively low cattle prices such as the Mercosur countries.

China cools and strong US market

There is a further incentive for Mercosur countries to refocus on the EU market this year. After a decade of unprecedented growth, China’s demand for beef imports has fallen.

Figure 2 shows that even though China’s beef imports for January to April 2025 are the second highest for the period on record, they are almost 105,000t lower than the same period in 2024.

It also shows that even with Paraguay not exporting beef to China, the remaining Mercosur countries accounted for 70% of China’s total beef imports in the first four months of this year.

With this market taking 104,702t less beef so far in 2025, it follows that they are looking for alternative export markets and the EU is one option.

While the EU is an alternative, the biggest growth market for Mercosur countries’ beef exports in 2025 has been the US. Figure 3 shows that Brazil’s beef exports to the US more than doubled to 151,028 tonnes to the middle of June 2025.

Brazil used most of the 65,000t tariff-free quota so the majority of Brazil’s exports to the US were subject to the 26.4% import tariff plus an additional 10% tariff added by US President Donald Trump in April.

The US has imported 58,416t of beef from Uruguay so far this year, an increase of 41% on last year. It has a 20,000t tariff-free quota, so anything above that will have paid the full import tariff. Argentina is a smaller supplier of US beef imports at 18,849t up to the middle of June which is 55% higher than the same period last year.

With Argentina having a 20,000t quota, they just have to pay the 10% tariff added in April.

The US market for imported beef is particularly strong at present as the US cattle herd is at its lowest point since the middle of the last century. US imports from both Australia and New Zealand have increased significantly in 2025 as well as those from the Mercosur countries. There has also been some switching of supply with volumes imported from Canada and Mexico down significantly.

Ebb and flow of international trade

While trade in the first four uncertain months of 2025 doesn’t necessarily dictate future trade flows, it reinforces the basic fundamentals. These are that Mercosur countries will remain huge exporters of beef and China and the US will continue as major importers. Within this framework, there have been changes on the margins. Demand for beef imports has fallen this year in China but increased in the US and Europe due to reduced production.

EU beef production has fallen by almost 4% so far in 2025 and while there may be some recovery in the second half of the year, it is likely that the overall will be down compared with last year. The EU and UK are the most valuable markets in the world for steak meat and therefore an attractive option for exporters of high-quality beef cuts.

Mercosur trade deal

At the end of last year, the EU and Mercosur countries concluded negotiations on a trade deal between both blocs for a second time. The first was six years ago at the end of June 2019 with the period since then spent renegotiating the environmental chapter when it became clear that the original agreement was unlikely to be approved by the European Parliament.

There is an ambition that the ratification process for the amended deal will get underway with the Council of Ministers (Heads of State) expected to approve it before the traditional summer break in Brussels begins in the second week of July. If they do – as is expected –then the process will move to parliament for debate in the autumn and the ratification process will be underway. Even with everything going to plan, it will be late in 2026 or the start of 2027 when the process would be complete.

The deal is widely accepted as good for overall trade, with Irish pharmaceutical and technology sectors identified as beneficiaries. However, it is and will remain a threat to beef producers and this is accepted by impact assessments carried out by both the EU and Irish Government. These are now well out of date and should be updated given price movements over recent months.

However, the basic principles remain the same. Irish and EU beef will face increased competition in its home market with the granting of an additional 99,000t preferential tariff quota for Mercosur countries.

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