Meat consumption to grow by 46m tonnes in next decade

In the first of a two-part series, we analyse the meat forecast of the OECD DAO 10-year agricultural production outlook report, with the dairy forecast to follow in part two. This will be published on Sunday 20 July at 2pm.

The meat chapter of the OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2025 to 2034 states that overall meat production was 359.9m tonnes annually, averaged over the years 2022 to 2024. It forecast this to grow by 46m tonnes by 2034.

(All weights are carcase weight equivalent).

Beef

This is the category of particular interest to the majority of Irish farmers. Global beef production is forecast to increase to 83.7m tonnes by 2034, up 10m tonnes on the 83.7m tonne average for the years 2022 to 2024.

The report predicts that most of this growth will occur in China for domestic consumption and India, where processing capacity is expanding and there is an export market for cheap buffalo meat. Herd destocking is expected to be reversed in the US, Australia and Canada in the later stages of the outlook period.

Beef consumption is expected to fall slightly in most of the world, but this will be more than offset in continued growth in consumption in African and Asian countries.

Overall, an extra 9.4m tonnes of beef is projected to be consumed in 2034 compared with the average annual consumption between 2022 and 2024.

Sheepmeat

Sheepmeat production is forecast to increase over the next decade to 19.3m tonnes, up from 16.8m tonnes between 2022 and 2024. The main contributor to this growth being China, where output is predicted to increase by 17%.

Production in the European Union is expected to decline, while competing land use alternatives in New Zealand will constrain production in the world’s second-largest exporter of the product.

Sheepmeat is the smallest meat category and is usually the most expensive. This means that its consumption is focused on festive occasions or in markets where pork isn’t a widely consumed meat, such as the Middle East and north Africa.

Overall, the report forecasts that an additional 2.7m tonnes of sheepmeat will be consumed in 2034 compared with the 2022 to 2024 annual average.

Poultry meat

Poultry meat is the biggest meat category, accounting for 144.9m tonnes of production annually, averaged over the years between 2022 and 2024.

This is projected to grow to 173.4m tonnes by 2034, of which it is estimated that 17m tonnes of which will be traded in international markets.

This level of increase means that 62% of all increased meat output is accounted for by poultry, though the report flags that disease highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) - more commonly known as bird flu - could jeopardise this growth.

Asian countries - particularly China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and Vietnam - have driven growth in consumption over the past decade. In the decade ahead, growth is expected to continue in these countries, with high growth also predicted for Brazil, Egypt, Mexico, the Philippines and the United States.

Pigmeat

Pigmeat production is forecast to grow to 129.6m tonnes, up from 123.5m tonnes annual average between 2022 and 2024.

Much of this predicted 13% increase in production is expected in Asian countries, driven by expected recovery from African swine fever (ASF).

The move from small back-yard productions to large-scale commercial units has been ongoing in China over recent years and similar is expected in neighbouring countries with Vietnam highlighted.

Pigmeat consumption is expected to grow in all markets apart from China, the EU, Japan and Switzerland, where consumption is already high and diets are increasingly influenced by health, environmental and societal concerns.

Total global consumption of pigmeat is projected to grow to 129.6m tonnes, up from 123.5m tonnes annual average between 2022 and 2024.

While poultry meat production and consumption will expand the most over the next decade, the reality is that there will be more demand for all types of meat in 2034 than there is at present.

Growth in demand will primarily be outside of the markets that we are familiar with in the UK and Europe, with the focus on Asia and Africa.

Production expansion will follow demand and there are huge efficiency in production gains that can be made in these regions of the world.

For Irish farmers and exporters, the report suggests that our traditional markets will remain more or less static and new additional opportunities will be much further away.