‘We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security,” the OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said at the launch of the 2025 Agricultural Outlook this week.
This report is produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO of th United Nations) and was launched in Rome earlier this week.
It is the annual outlook at what is likely to develop in terms of food production and consumption for the decade ahead.
Progress has been made on better nutrition for developing countries but FAO director general, QU Dongyu said that these “need to be scaled up to reach those in the lowest income countries”.
He also acknowledged progress on reducing emissions: “Lower carbon intensity of agrifood systems is also welcome, but we can do better, and FAO and
OECD stand ready to help drive it down even more.”
In last year’s report it was highlighted that if food waste in the supply chain from production through to consumption could be halved, emissions from agriculture globally would be reduced by 4%.
Expansion in decade ahead
World production of agricultural and fish commodities is forecast to grow by around 14% between now and 2034.
It is projected to take place primarily through productivity gains in middle income countries but it also will require increased animal herds and cropland areas.
This basically means bringing land into agricultural production that isn’t already being cultivated.
The report forecasts that the global output of meat, dairy products and eggs will increase by 17% over the next decade, numbers of cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry will grow by 7%.
This means that while the majority of the increase will be driven by productivity improvements, the reality is that more numbers will also be required. The consequence of greater numbers is a projected increase of 6% in direct agricultural GHG emissions over the decade ahead.
Income increases drive demand
The report identifies the increase in production and calorie intake from animal source products as being driven by income increase in what are described as middle income countries. These are also known as emerging economies, most of which are found in Asia and to a lesser extent in Africa where many countries are classified as low income countries.
The most spectacular example of a rapidly expanding economy driving demand for animal produce is the growth in beef imports by China since 2012 as shown in Figure 1.
After a decade of rapid growth to 2022, the rate of increase in demand has subsequently slowed down.
Global per capita calorie intake of livestock and fish-based food is projected to increase by 6% over the coming decade, but it is expected to increase by four times the average rate or 24% in lower middle-income countries.
This will bring their calorie intake from nutrient-rich, animal origin food to 364 kcal daily, above the 300 kcal benchmark used by FAO to analyse the cost and affordability of a healthy diet.
However, the intake in low income countries is projected at 143 kcal, well below the benchmark.
At the other end of the scale, in high income countries, it is projected that 939 kcal will be consumed per person daily from animal origin food, with 396 kcal of this from dairy alone.
In upper middle income countries, almost 600 kcal will come from animal origin food.
Cereal demand and use
Global cereal production is forecast to grow by 1.1% annually over the next decade with 0.9% of this increase coming from an expected annual increase in yields. The remainder of the growth will come from an 0.14% expansion in the area in production, but while this is an increase, it is forecast to grow at less than half the 0.33% growth in production area that occurred over the past decade.
The report also projects that by 2034, 40% of cereal production will be used for food consumed by humans with 33% going into animal feed. The remainder will be used for biofuel production and other industrial uses.
Productivity and emissions reduction
The report identifies the need for “increased efforts to improve agricultural productivity are needed to tackle the dual challenges of reducing undernourishment and agricultural GHG emissions.” It suggests that “global undernourishment could be eradicated and direct agriculture GHG emissions reduced by 7% if combined investments were made in emissions reduction technologies and a 15% productivity improvement. This analysis is comparable with the Teagasc MACC which is a roadmap for reduction in emissions from Irish agriculture.
One consequence of increased productivity identified by the report is that it is expected to put downward pressure on agricultural commodity prices.
This would be bad news for Irish farmers who welcomed a necessary increase in returns this year. OECD and FAO have also recognised that this would be a problem for small farmers who are vulnerable to market volatility and have limited capacity to adopt the innovative technologies needed to increase productivity.
They are thinking in particular of small producers in lower income parts of the world where productivity is lowest and they do go on to suggest that “governments must also ensure that farmers have better access to markets and locally tailored support programmes”.
Comment
Need for food will increase emissions
This is the 21st annual outlook produced by OECD-FAO. The recurring theme in recent reports is reconciling the need for more food alongside the need to minimise emissions. The biggest offenders in emissions per kilo of meat or litre of milk are those in the poorer countries that don’t have the wealth, environment or scale of production to maximise efficiency. The most efficient countries such as Ireland with the highest levels of productivity inevitably create high levels of emissions from agriculture in absolute terms but they are low in relative terms per kilo of meat or litre of milk.
Output of meat, dairy products and eggs will increase by 17%.Cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry numbers will grow by 7%.Calorie intake of livestock and fish based food to increase by 6%.Cereal production is forecast to grow by 1.1% annually.40% of cereal production will be used for food.33% of cereal production will go into animal feed, remainder to biofuel and industrial uses.Projected increase of 6% in direct agricultural GHG emissions.
‘We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security,” the OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said at the launch of the 2025 Agricultural Outlook this week.
This report is produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO of th United Nations) and was launched in Rome earlier this week.
It is the annual outlook at what is likely to develop in terms of food production and consumption for the decade ahead.
Progress has been made on better nutrition for developing countries but FAO director general, QU Dongyu said that these “need to be scaled up to reach those in the lowest income countries”.
He also acknowledged progress on reducing emissions: “Lower carbon intensity of agrifood systems is also welcome, but we can do better, and FAO and
OECD stand ready to help drive it down even more.”
In last year’s report it was highlighted that if food waste in the supply chain from production through to consumption could be halved, emissions from agriculture globally would be reduced by 4%.
Expansion in decade ahead
World production of agricultural and fish commodities is forecast to grow by around 14% between now and 2034.
It is projected to take place primarily through productivity gains in middle income countries but it also will require increased animal herds and cropland areas.
This basically means bringing land into agricultural production that isn’t already being cultivated.
The report forecasts that the global output of meat, dairy products and eggs will increase by 17% over the next decade, numbers of cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry will grow by 7%.
This means that while the majority of the increase will be driven by productivity improvements, the reality is that more numbers will also be required. The consequence of greater numbers is a projected increase of 6% in direct agricultural GHG emissions over the decade ahead.
Income increases drive demand
The report identifies the increase in production and calorie intake from animal source products as being driven by income increase in what are described as middle income countries. These are also known as emerging economies, most of which are found in Asia and to a lesser extent in Africa where many countries are classified as low income countries.
The most spectacular example of a rapidly expanding economy driving demand for animal produce is the growth in beef imports by China since 2012 as shown in Figure 1.
After a decade of rapid growth to 2022, the rate of increase in demand has subsequently slowed down.
Global per capita calorie intake of livestock and fish-based food is projected to increase by 6% over the coming decade, but it is expected to increase by four times the average rate or 24% in lower middle-income countries.
This will bring their calorie intake from nutrient-rich, animal origin food to 364 kcal daily, above the 300 kcal benchmark used by FAO to analyse the cost and affordability of a healthy diet.
However, the intake in low income countries is projected at 143 kcal, well below the benchmark.
At the other end of the scale, in high income countries, it is projected that 939 kcal will be consumed per person daily from animal origin food, with 396 kcal of this from dairy alone.
In upper middle income countries, almost 600 kcal will come from animal origin food.
Cereal demand and use
Global cereal production is forecast to grow by 1.1% annually over the next decade with 0.9% of this increase coming from an expected annual increase in yields. The remainder of the growth will come from an 0.14% expansion in the area in production, but while this is an increase, it is forecast to grow at less than half the 0.33% growth in production area that occurred over the past decade.
The report also projects that by 2034, 40% of cereal production will be used for food consumed by humans with 33% going into animal feed. The remainder will be used for biofuel production and other industrial uses.
Productivity and emissions reduction
The report identifies the need for “increased efforts to improve agricultural productivity are needed to tackle the dual challenges of reducing undernourishment and agricultural GHG emissions.” It suggests that “global undernourishment could be eradicated and direct agriculture GHG emissions reduced by 7% if combined investments were made in emissions reduction technologies and a 15% productivity improvement. This analysis is comparable with the Teagasc MACC which is a roadmap for reduction in emissions from Irish agriculture.
One consequence of increased productivity identified by the report is that it is expected to put downward pressure on agricultural commodity prices.
This would be bad news for Irish farmers who welcomed a necessary increase in returns this year. OECD and FAO have also recognised that this would be a problem for small farmers who are vulnerable to market volatility and have limited capacity to adopt the innovative technologies needed to increase productivity.
They are thinking in particular of small producers in lower income parts of the world where productivity is lowest and they do go on to suggest that “governments must also ensure that farmers have better access to markets and locally tailored support programmes”.
Comment
Need for food will increase emissions
This is the 21st annual outlook produced by OECD-FAO. The recurring theme in recent reports is reconciling the need for more food alongside the need to minimise emissions. The biggest offenders in emissions per kilo of meat or litre of milk are those in the poorer countries that don’t have the wealth, environment or scale of production to maximise efficiency. The most efficient countries such as Ireland with the highest levels of productivity inevitably create high levels of emissions from agriculture in absolute terms but they are low in relative terms per kilo of meat or litre of milk.
Output of meat, dairy products and eggs will increase by 17%.Cattle, sheep, pigs and poultry numbers will grow by 7%.Calorie intake of livestock and fish based food to increase by 6%.Cereal production is forecast to grow by 1.1% annually.40% of cereal production will be used for food.33% of cereal production will go into animal feed, remainder to biofuel and industrial uses.Projected increase of 6% in direct agricultural GHG emissions.
SHARING OPTIONS: