A Trump tax and a Rabobank forecast slowdown in consumer spending seem to be the somewhat lame duck excuses given by Dairygold, Carbery and Kerry for dropping May milk price. To use these reasons for milk supplied six weeks ago paints a gloomy outlook.

Closer to the truth might be directors hedging their bets at peak milk on a reduced Irish milk supply driving higher costs and a forecast powered by an uncertain environmental policy. Milk supply and demand dynamics don’t suggest a downward milk price position.

It is unusual for Rabobank to talk up a year-on-year upward supply trend in the context of declining global milk over a wider window.

European and global dairy markets are remarkably stable, despite volatility in other markets. Over the last four weeks, European butter prices have actually increased by €260/t.

More or less as expected, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) has seen its index reduce by 2.5% in the month.

May 2025 has been a bumper month for milk deliveries relative to the same month in 2024. Clearly, market returns are a lesser part of the milk price equation than real life business costs.