About one-third of the time, the market usually gives you a decent price to sell at. However, this season that was reduced to about 10% of the time, according to a leading grain market analyst.

Speaking at an Irish Farmers' Association (IFA) grain meeting in Laois last week, Rory Deverell of Black Silo Commodity Consulting explained he has always tried to get farmers to manage risk, but this year has been difficult.

“We produce a product. Its value changes from the day we sow it to the day we cut it. You’ve basically got 12 months from when you put it in the ground until you sell it and get your price,” he said.

The risk manager noted that from his analysis over the last three or four years, from planting in September to harvest in July or August, about one-third of the time you actually get a decent price to sell your grain at between those two windows.

However, this season, the market has only provided a genuinely profitable price to sell at about 10% of the time, Rory explained. So, he said you could be forgiven for not selling.

Two ways

He did note that you can look at this two ways. The first is that you had less time to sell and didn’t take the opportunity to sell or that you could have sold the equivalent of once every 10 days and you didn’t sell.

In October and February, the Matif French wheat price moved to €240/t, which was a profitable price at farm level.

In a normal year, selling at those windows of opportunity has gained Rory €10 to €20/t from the harvest price.

Rory said if farmers did nothing at this time, they will get nothing and a lesson he is keen to get out is stick to the plan. Have a price that you are happy to sell at to make a profit and sell when the opportunity arises.

Adding price insurance in at those selling opportunities could prevent you from missing out on higher prices.