The EU looks set to remain a net importer of sheepmeat over the next 10 years as New Zealand readies to fill the gap left by lower domestic production.

The European Commission’s latest medium-term outlook for the sector anticipates the EU’s dependence on sheepmeat imports will only grow stronger as UK and NZ volumes drive a forecast 10% increase in imported product by 2035.

The outlook states that imports are likely to increase from the UK as NZ lamb out competes UK farmers in their own market.

Imports from NZ to the EU are to rise too with the implementation of the free trade agreement between the markets. While sheepmeat and goatmeat production are forecast to decline overall in the EU as a whole, the drop will be driven by older, generally more western countries that had been EU members before 2004.

These member states are expected to witness a 1.3% decline in volumes annually out to 2035, while newer and eastern member states will see output rise by almost 1% each year.

These production trends would see the difference between EU imports and exports hit an equivalent of 6.5m 20kg carcases to satisfy demand.