The UK sheepmeat production forecast has been revised upwards for 2025, with total sheepmeat production expected to increase by 4% to 276,000t.
This is underpinned by a larger carryover of 2024-born lambs and improved lamb survivability in the 2025 lamb crop.
The Agriculture Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) estimates that the lamb crop for the 2025/26 season is likely to be just reduced by 1% (15.6m head) compared with 2024/25 lamb crop.
This is despite the breeding ewe flock falling by 5% year on year and standing at 13.1m head in December 2024.
The higher forecast comes from an expected improvement in the lamb rearing rate figure, with weather conditions infinitely better than the previous year.
As such, mortality linked to weather is predicted to have been much lower, with disease pressure also significantly reduced.
Sheep throughput
The AHDB reports that DEFRA’s clean sheep slaughter figure for quarter one of 2025 has been lower than expected, totalling 2.8m head.
This is despite the higher carryover of sheep predicted. It is also feeding into higher production forecasts for quarter two of 2025, with the sheep kill for the period April to July forecast at 3.1m head.
Throughput in the second half of 2025 is forecast to be broadly in line with 2024 levels and lower than previous years.
Hoggets - or what are termed old-season lambs in the UK - are making up a much higher proportion of throughput than in previous years.
The higher levels of throughput have also inserted downward pressure on the trade, with prices running over £1.50/kg lower year on year.
Forecasts for the second half of 2025 are expected to be broadly in line with 2024 throughput levels at 2.9m and 3.1m head for quarter three and quarter four respectively.
The UK sheepmeat production forecast has been revised upwards for 2025, with total sheepmeat production expected to increase by 4% to 276,000t.
This is underpinned by a larger carryover of 2024-born lambs and improved lamb survivability in the 2025 lamb crop.
The Agriculture Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) estimates that the lamb crop for the 2025/26 season is likely to be just reduced by 1% (15.6m head) compared with 2024/25 lamb crop.
This is despite the breeding ewe flock falling by 5% year on year and standing at 13.1m head in December 2024.
The higher forecast comes from an expected improvement in the lamb rearing rate figure, with weather conditions infinitely better than the previous year.
As such, mortality linked to weather is predicted to have been much lower, with disease pressure also significantly reduced.
Sheep throughput
The AHDB reports that DEFRA’s clean sheep slaughter figure for quarter one of 2025 has been lower than expected, totalling 2.8m head.
This is despite the higher carryover of sheep predicted. It is also feeding into higher production forecasts for quarter two of 2025, with the sheep kill for the period April to July forecast at 3.1m head.
Throughput in the second half of 2025 is forecast to be broadly in line with 2024 levels and lower than previous years.
Hoggets - or what are termed old-season lambs in the UK - are making up a much higher proportion of throughput than in previous years.
The higher levels of throughput have also inserted downward pressure on the trade, with prices running over £1.50/kg lower year on year.
Forecasts for the second half of 2025 are expected to be broadly in line with 2024 throughput levels at 2.9m and 3.1m head for quarter three and quarter four respectively.
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