Grain prices continued to rise for the most part in the last week, although it dipped on Tuesday.

Matif wheat for December closed last week at €254.25/t, up €13.25/t on the previous week’s close. That price then peaked at €262.75/t on Monday evening, before dropping back to €255/t on Tuesday evening.

By Wednesday afternoon, that price was on the rise again, hitting €260/t.

The rises and dips this week may be due to people who don’t have grain to sell, but are buying positions in the market and selling those positions with movements in the market.

Maize and oilseed rape prices also increased last week in France. UK wheat markets were up and US wheat, maize and soybean prices increased.

Weather was a big factor in markets. Dry weather in Russia caused concern over crop yields, while the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reported that “May frosts caused three of Russia’s key grain-growing regions to declare a state of emergency on Thursday due to damaged crops (LSEG).”

The AHDB also reported that Russian forecaster IKAR cut its wheat crop estimate from 91m tonnes to 86m tonnes.

Weather in Brazil is also a concern for crop yields and the impact of flooding on crops will emerge in time.

WASDE report

The United States Department of Agriculture released its WASDE report on Friday 10 May.

US wheat production was estimated up 3% for the 2024/2025 season. However, the maize crop forecast was estimated down 3% on last year’s record, due to a decline in area.

Global wheat production is forecast at a record 798.2m tonnes. Wheat supplies are projected to decrease by 2.2m tonnes and world consumption is projected to rise by 2m tonnes in 2024/2025.

The report estimated that world maize production will decline for 2024/2025 from the previous year’s record to 1.220 billion tonnes.

Large declines were forecast in the US, Ukraine, Argentina, Turkey and parts of Africa.

Maize area was reported to be down in Argentina and up in Brazil. However, the USDA’s estimates did not place maize production down as much as Argentina and Brazil’s own estimates.

Native prices

The rise in markets was reflected in prices at home, with co-ops offering €200/t for green barley at harvest, €215 to €216/t for wheat and €440/t for oilseed rape.

Something to watch is that November dry barley prices are at approximately €230/t and are at similar levels to November maize.