Live exports accelerating the herd decline

The size of the national dairy herd has reduced by 7% over the last 12 months. This includes all female dairy bred animals including cows, calves and heifers.

This follows on from a 4% reduction in the national dairy herd in 2024 and a 1% reduction in 2023.

The reduction in the size of the dairy herd over the last three years is in direct contrast to the previous three years when there was a 10.5% increase between 2019 and 2022.

Despite the fall off in dairy numbers over the last three years, dairy cow numbers remain 25% higher than they were in March 2015. Cow numbers in 2025 are back 3% compared to 2024, even though the entire dairy herd is back by more than 7%, indicating that youngstock numbers are decreasing at a faster rate than adult dairy cows.

This follows on from the Irish Farmers Journal analysis last week showing that dairy heifer calves born in 2025 are back over 12% compared to 2024.

Surge in live exports accelerating the national herd decline

The marked decline in the national herd has also been fuelled by growth in live exports of cattle, which reached a 20-year high of almost 380,000 head in 2024.

The live export trade over the last 50 years has been characterised by periods of massive fluctuation but, as detailed in Figure 3, there has been steady growth since 2021, with exports increasing by over 130,000 head.

The national herd has fallen by approximately 440,000 head in the same period, meaning about 30% of the decline can be attributed to higher numbers of cattle leaving the country.

Calves aged less than six weeks old accounted for 43% of exports, with those aged six weeks to six months accounting for another 13.5%.

It was a similar percentage for animals in the six- to 12-month age category and also one- to two-year-olds. The balance of 45,000 head, consisted of finished animals and cows.

Live exports this year are booming, with exports of over 160,000 head up to early April running 32,739 head, or 26% higher year-on-year.

The importance of protecting Ireland’s live export trade is laid bare in the fact that, should anything curtail exports, it would add upwards of 400,000 head of cattle to the national herd in the space of just 12 months.

There are several policy threats to exports, with young calves facing the greatest challenge. However the biggest short-term threat that could decimate exports is that bluetongue or foot and mouth disease (FMD) viruses reaching our shores.

Live exports are also intrinsically linked with Ireland’s beef kill, with high export figures creating a tightness in supply down the line.

There were over 42,000 fewer beef cattle aged six to 12 months of age and over 60,000 fewer cattle aged one to two years of age on farms on 1 March which, when combined with high live exports, will leave the potential beef kill at a lower level for 2025.

Causes and concerns

The last four years have been difficult years from a grass growth point of view and many farmers have decided to reduce stock numbers in order to create a better balance between herd demand and what grass the farm is growing.

Part of the reason for the reduction in grass growth is due to changes in Government policy.

Tighter restrictions on chemical nitrogen use thanks to the introduction of the national fertiliser register and a 15% reduction in maximum chemical nitrogen allowance between 2022 and 2025 have impacted on grass growth rates.

The introduction of banding and the cut to the nitrates derogation means that many farmers have had to reduce stocking rate in order to comply with the new rules.

These policy changes have driven farmers to take on extra land and as a result the cost of land leasing and purchase has increased dramatically since 2022. Where farmers cannot afford to take on land, they have no choice but to reduce stock numbers.

An expanding dairy sector would have made it much harder for agriculture to meet its 2030 climate change targets.

The biggest cause for concern within these numbers is that heifer numbers have fallen to a level that makes maintaining the national dairy herd at present numbers impossible.

It’s a signal by farmers that they are prepared to milk fewer cows in the future. This will come as a worry to dairy co-ops, marts, beef factories and agri-businesses who rely on the dairy sector for their income.

On the other hand, there are no doubt many within Government circles who will be relieved to see a reduction in the dairy herd. An expanding dairy sector would have made it much harder for agriculture to meet its 2030 climate change targets.

What makes these statistics all the more unusual is that the economic return from dairy farming is at a very high level, with 2024 the second most profitable year ever and 2025 set to be even more profitable.

Milk prices are high and are forecast to remain high in the short, medium and long term. The economic drivers of growth are all present, yet cow numbers are set to fall. We can clearly point to an anti-dairy sentiment which perpetuated from the previous Government as the root cause of the current contraction in the national dairy herd.

The threat of culling 200,000 dairy cows, the threat of losing the nitrates derogation and the punishing - and hotly contested - methane calculations for livestock emissions are no doubt factors in the reductions in dairy stock now evident. There will be no winners from a reduction in cow numbers in Ireland. The cost of processing milk will increase, impacting on the price of milk that can be paid to farmer shareholders.

The exchequer will suffer from fewer dairy exports. Beef factories will have fewer cattle to kill and the knock-on impacts to the wider rural economy will be significant.

As the saying goes, you reap what you sow and what is happening at farm level now can be traced directly back to Government policy.

Steep decline in suckler cow numbers continues

Suckler cow numbers in Ireland currently stand at 743,880. This is down from almost 1.1m suckler cows just 12 years ago in 2013.

The decline has been slow and gradual, with the national herd contracting by just over 29,000 cows per year over the last 12 years. The rate of decline has increased in recent years with 2024 recording the biggest drop in a decade, when 5.4% of the national suckler herd or 45,550 suckler cows were culled between 2023 and 2024.

A similar decline from 2024 to 2025 is looking likely, although a strong back end for weanling prices and record beef prices this spring at the beginning of 2025 could help slow the rate of decline in the years ahead.

We’ve seen a chink of light in this already with the number of suckler calf registrations down just over 2,000 head in the first 16 weeks of 2025, down from a 22,000 suckler calf registration drop during the same period in 2024.

The decision to breed suckler cows or cull them would have been made in spring and summer 2024 before the current spike in cattle prices commenced, so there could be a chance that some suckler farmers could reappraise their business as weanlings hit €2,000/head in marts this spring.

Succession is a huge issue on suckler farms with the next generation not as prepared as previous generations to work a part time job along with calving cows. This is driven by a general low level of profitability up to this year and many feeling that it wasn’t worth it to have the hassle of calving cows for a very low return.

Policy has also shaped the decline over the last 10 years. There has been no sudden policy change. Talk of a reduction scheme for suckler cows in 2021 was quickly shot down by a lot of farmers and farm organisations.

Meat Industry Ireland was on of the most vocal groups to come out against a reduction scheme with a sudden realisation that the raw material that they need to make their business profitable may not be there if the current rate of decline was sped up.

A reduction or exit scheme hasn’t been needed though and instead numbers have reduced through a variety of more subtle carrot approaches without waving any stick to get out of suckler cows.

Drivers of decline

Organics has been a driver of the reduction in suckler cow numbers in the last few years especially in the west of the country.

A big financial incentive of €300/ha has been seen by many as a way of shoring-up reductions that have been made in recent years to Basic Payment Scheme payments through convergence and other cuts. Going organic means either less suckler cows or in may cases organic farmers have chosen to get out of cows altogether and instead move to summer grazing of drystock, a simpler system especially if there is no successor on the farm. Environmental schemes have also taken their toll on suckler cow numbers with lower intensity farming being grant aided, this means less fertiliser being spread, less grass being grown, less silage being made and at the end of all that less suckler cows. Lowering nitrates stocking limits has been generally seen as a dairy problem but this has also put pressure on suckler cow numbers in dairy dominant areas.

One of the ways of counteracting the new limits is rent more land. This has driven up the price of rented land out of reach of what is economically viable for suckler farmers, so many have had to drop rented land and lower suckler cow numbers. FAPRI analysis would suggest that the national suckler herd will drop to 600,000 cows by 2030 and this figure has been built into our emissions reduction targets that we have to hit by 2030. While less cows may well balance the books better in terms of emissions there are a lot of long-term implications.

We could also see some of the smaller independent meat processors, sometimes the top payers, close due to lower cattle numbers

Fewer marts will be one of them so how will we choose which ones to close. Fewer country stores, fewer country schools, fewer country shops, fewer country post offices, fewer country garda stations. We have already seen this happen in many rural areas. We could also see some of the smaller independent meat processors, sometimes the top payers, close due to lower cattle numbers reducing competition for stock and leaving it all to the bigger players in the business. There is no long-term plan for our suckler industry and that coupled with little support for young farmers to enter the industry, despite the good cattle prices, will see the decline continue.