The battle to save Ireland’s nitrates derogation is hurtling towards its end-game – and the final result may not be pretty for the dairy sector.

The proposals tabled by the Department of Agriculture this week at the Agriculture Water Quality Working Group confirms a major shift in Ireland’s derogation defence strategy.

Instead of seeking to retain the derogation for the country as a whole, as was the case, the Department now appears to be focussing on holding the derogation for as much of the country as possible, for as long as possible.

The plan will see the country’s 46 river catchment areas and 583 sub-catchment areas subjected to individual assessments.

This process will examine if the farming practices allowed under the nitrates derogation meet with the requirements set out under the Habitats Directive.

There is anger and frustration among farmer and dairy industry representatives that the Habitats Directive has effectively been parachuted in as the new assessment metric.

Improving water quality has been the primary focus of efforts to protect the derogation over the last few years.

With this in mind, the dairy sector was convinced that it had a fighting chance of retaining the derogation following the recent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) test results, which showed a 10% reduction in nitrate levels in the country’s rivers in 2024 compared to 2023.

However, this ‘progress’ has been devalued somewhat, following confirmation that the requirements of the Habitats Directive will inform future assessments of river catchments.

But the Department defended the change of tack: “Based on correspondence from the Commission, and the Dutch nitrates case, to secure our next nitrates derogation Ireland must demonstrate compliance with the Habitats Directive when granting farmers a nitrates derogation,” it stated.

Even so, the proposals have prompted serious concerns among derogation farmers and dairy processors.

Critics argue that the Department approach is akin to a stay of execution for areas such as the southeast, which face the greatest challenge in terms of holding the derogation.

They contend that while it will be business as usual for the two to three years it takes to complete the appropriate assessments, the likelihood of many river sub-catchment areas meeting the new criteria is very slim.

Therefore, the assessment process will ultimately result in many farmers, particularly in the south and southeast, having to cut cow numbers, industry insiders maintained.

This has income implications, with Teagasc estimating that the derogation’s loss will reduce the average income on derogation farms by €45,000.

Given the high stakes for farmers and processors, the Department needs to be honest and upfront on the derogation.

As one of the younger members of Fine Gael’s cabinet team, Martin Heydon no doubt has ambitions for the future.

Does he want to be forever known as the Minister for Agriculture that brought in the beginning of the end of the derogation and productive farming in Ireland?