Despite the record prices currently being paid for beef, suckler cow numbers will continue to decline, a leading industry expert has said.

Addressing the spring conference organised by the Irish Farmers Journal and Livestock and Meat Commission, Michael Haverty from Andersons predicted that a shift from sucklers to dairy beef will continue, with suckler numbers across the UK down by a further 20% by 2035. That would take the UK total to around 1m head and in NI, would mean suckler cow numbers drop to 188,000, the lowest number since 1968.

Surplus

In their latest NI beef and sheep farm model, which is based on a 60ha lowland farm, Andersons show that increased prices result in a business surplus of £245/ha after all costs and personal drawings, significantly up from the £48/ha made in 2023-2024.

However, the surplus predicted for 2025-2026 is still less than the £350/ha the farm is likely to receive in support payments.

“Prices are increasing and are having a positive influence. But grazing livestock are reliant on direct support,” said Haverty.

Dairy

The Andersons analysis also suggests that dairy cow numbers will fall by around 6 to 7% by 2035, but increasing cow yields will ensure overall milk output remains similar to where it is at present. Average UK herd size will increase to over 200 cows.

Exit

Across both dairy and beef, Andersons predict the total UK breeding herd will be 12% to 14% lower in 2035 than it is now, with farmers exiting cattle production due to issues around economics (sucklers), environmental regulations and succession.

In the uplands, there will also be increased pressure for land use change driven by climate targets, with more trees planted and peatland rewetted to capture carbon. That will have implications for ewe numbers, with Andersons predicting an 8% decline by 2035.

Taking everything together, the reduction in numbers will obviously increase the pressure for rationalisation in the abattoir sector across the UK.

However, for those livestock farmers that are left, there are good reasons to be positive, with global consumption of both beef and lamb to continue rising and the UK well placed to deal with challenges posed by climate change.

“Andersons feels there is a bright future for UK farming,” said Haverty. See page 6.