Improved returns across a number of sectors, combined with generally favourable weather conditions over the past year, have left most NI farmers feeling positive about the prospects for their business over the next 12 months.

A survey of several hundred farmers, jointly undertaken by the Ulster Farmers’ Union and the Irish Farmers Journal at the 2025 Balmoral Show, asked respondents how their business has performed in the last financial year.

Just under half (48%) said their income was up, while 45% said it was similar, leaving just 7% indicating their returns were down when compared to previous years.

Looking ahead, two-thirds of NI farmers indicated they are either ‘fairly positive’ or ‘very positive’ about prospects over the next 12 months (Figure 1), with just 10% feeling negative. However, when asked about prospects over the next five years, farmers are considerably more cautious, with the number feeling positive dropping to 41% (Figure 2).

Output

Our survey also asked farmers about their intentions over the next year, with the results suggesting there could be a slight growth in overall NI farm output when compared to 2024 (see Figure 3).

While most farmers (48%) said the output from their business would remain steady, a total of 29% did indicate that production would be ‘slightly higher’. By contrast, 13% suggested the amount produced on their farms would be ‘slightly lower’ in 2025.

Most are sceptical of DAERA

One of the main questions in our survey asked farmers to rate how their business might be impacted over the next year by various factors, including the cost of inputs, value of outputs, changes to farm payments, environmental regulations and employers’ national insurance.

Of these, it was DAERA-led changes that cause the most concern. Over 60% of respondents to the survey believe that ‘DAERA environmental regulations’ will have a negative effect on their farm business, while just 13% thought the effect might be positive.

In terms of changes to farm payments, 55% of farmers believe it will have a negative impact, with just 11% believing it might be positive. By contrast, most farmers expect returns from the market to remain strong, with over half (54%) believing the value of outputs will have a positive effect on their business over the next year.

Imbalance between environment and food

A clear majority of farmers (55%) think current environmental policies in NI do not strike the right balance between protecting the environment and ensuring food production (see Fig. 4).

However, there are 25% of farmers who believe the current balance is correct, while a further 20% said they did not know.

A major talking point at Balmoral Show was the proposed DAERA changes to the Nutrients Action Programme (NAP), with many farmers expressing concerns about the implications of future policy changes on their businesses.

Widespread impact of inheritance tax changes

UK government ministers might continue to insist that only a small number of farmers will be impacted by reforms to Inheritance Tax (IHT) due to come into force in April 2026, however, our survey results suggest the complete opposite.

As shown in Figure 4, across all respondents, 77% believe their farm business will be directly impacted by the proposals, which include a new £1m threshold for Agricultural Property Relief. Only 14% of farmers in our survey think the proposals won’t impact them, while a further 8% said they didn’t know.

When asked what action they might take to mitigate against an increased IHT liability, 30% said they would change the structure of their business, with a further 15% indicating they would reduce future investment. However, 39% said they didn’t know what they might do in future.

Issues arising post-Brexit

A new EU – UK deal announced on Monday should pave the way for significantly fewer checks and friction when moving goods from Britain to NI.

The results of our survey would suggest that easement in trade is something that will be welcomed by farmers.

We asked farmers how they viewed the current arrangements set out in the Windsor Framework deal in February 2023.

A shown in Figure 6, well over half believe these arrangements bring ‘some challenges’ or are ‘detrimental’ to NI farmers. Just 6% believe the deal is ‘working well’.