The cut in emissions from farming recorded in 2023 have not been sustained and embedded in the sector for 2024, early Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data for last year shows.

Director general of the EPA Laura Burke outlined that the sector will not repeat the same level of emissions recorded in 2023.

“Early data is showing a marginal increase in emissions associated with nitrogen fertiliser being up 15%,” she told a Department of Agriculture climate change conference in Dublin on Thursday.

“Also notable is that in quarter four of 2024 [compared with] quarter four of 2023 is that emissions are up in that last quarter by 3.8%,” she said, adding that increased methane emissions were driven by increased milk production.

Marginal increase

“In 2024, we are seeing that marginal increase. The way we’ve produced our indicators do show a close correlation with the ultimate inventory we produce,” she said. This will be published in late June or July, she added.

Last week, the EPA published projections to the end of the decade. It found that emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) could increase by up to 95% depending on the measures taken.

Under a best-case scenario, emissions from the agriculture sector, which are separate to LULUCF emissions, could decrease by 16%. Burke outlined that that target is achievable with “very significant assumptions”.

This would mean that all slurry storage would be covered by 2027 and fertiliser sales ceilings would be met, among other actions.

“We need to scale up implementation,” the EPA director general said.