It is now far more likely that Ireland will reach extreme temperatures of 33°C in the summer time, new research has revealed.

The study by Maynooth University found that a temperature event of 33°C in Dublin’s Phoenix Park has gone from being a one in 180-year event in 1942 to a one in nine-year event in 2020.

It also estimates that a temperature of more than 34°C - a value not yet recorded in Ireland - changed from a one in 1,600-year event to a one in 28-year event between 1942 and 2020.

Dr Dáire Healy of the Hamilton Institute at Maynooth University, one of the leads on the project, said the likelihood of 28°C has doubled.

“We found that spatial heatwave events over thresholds that are critical for society have become much larger . . . with this change increasing at more extreme temperatures,” he said.

'Concerned'

Healy’s colleague, Professor Andrew Parnell, added that people should be “seriously concerned” about this.

“We are often focused on average changes and particularly focus on the Paris Climate Agreement of 1.5°C.

“What we have shown here is that the changes in extremes are much larger than the changes in the average and are something we should be seriously concerned about,” he said.

Parnell said the research shows that society urgently needs to adapt to extreme temperature events, which have profound implications for public health, agriculture, economic stability and infrastructure resilience.

New model

The study developed a new model to predict the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme summer temperature events in Ireland.

The research team believes that the model’s ability to predict spatial patterns of extreme events offers a tool for policymakers and stakeholders to mitigate risks and plan for future climate scenarios.

The model captures both location and temporal variations in extreme daily maximum temperatures using new mathematical techniques.

Analysis by the research team identifies a significant change in the behaviour of extreme temperature events over time, which exceeds the observed changes in mean temperature levels over the same period.