The growth in the Irish whiskey industry over the past 15 years has been nothing short of phenomenal.

In 2010 there were six distilleries in Ireland, a number which has since grown to 50 across the island.

Exports of Irish whiskey have risen by 150% over the past decade to hit €1bn in 2024.

There have been benefits to the Irish tillage industry from this expansion, with over 300,000t of malting barley produced for the drinks industry here, with around 120,000t of that going to distillers.

The future of that rapid expansion is now in doubt due to the trade policies of the current US administration.

Whiskey has been caught up before in tit-for-tat trade escalations at the end of the first Trump presidency, but for the moment is only subject to the blanket 10% tariff on goods shipped to the US.

However, the fear is that drinks exports to the US could again become a target for the famously teetotal US president.

In looking at the growth in the industry here, there has been a tendency to focus on the growth of exports to the US.

While that market has been critical for driving demand for Irish whiskey over the past decade, it has been shrinking for the last four years, both in absolute terms by value of exports and by share overall whiskey exports (see Figure 1).

In the 12 months to April 2022, the US market accounted for 52% of the value of Irish whiskey exports with a value of €492m.

In the most recent 12 months for which Bord Bia data is available to April 2025, exports of whiskey to the US had dropped by almost €60m to €424m, accounting for 42% of total exports of the spirit.

Across the same four-year period, overall exports of whiskey expanded by 6% to €997bn, meaning that the increase in sales to the rest of the world more than made up for the slowdown in exports to the US.

Digging into the export data produced by Bord Bia, there are some surprising statistics.

In the 12 months to April 2025 the value of whiskey exported to South Africa, at €56.5m, was greater than exports to all of Asia during the same period.

In fact, those exports were greater than the €44.4m of Irish whiskey exported to Great Britain.

In North America, some Irish exporters are seeing fresh opportunities in Canada as consumers there turn away from US whiskey in protest over Trump’s belligerence towards the country. Irish whiskey exports to Canada increased by more than 10% in the last year.

While Asia remains a small market in absolute terms, the steady growth in exports to the region over the past few years shows that progress is being made in opening new markets. In the last four years the value of Irish whiskey sold in Asia has doubled to €50.5m.

In fact, the only major export market which has seen a drop in the value of whiskey exports over the past four years has been the US market.

10% is manageable

Despite the changing dynamics in recent years, there is no denying that the US market remains key for the Irish industry. The short-term future of that market will be decided over the coming weeks in talks between Washington and Brussels over a new trade deal.

With the deadline for conclusion of the negotiation now set for 1 August, there isn’t long to wait for the possibility of some certainty.

The ideal level of tariffs is obviously zero, but should the current 10% level be maintained in the wake of a EU-US deal, that would have to be seen as good news for the Irish whiskey industry, considering the alternatives.

In fact, the biggest challenge to distillers here trying to sell into the US is that there currently is so much uncertainty.

Importers, many of whom increased stocks at the end of 2024, are happy to wait until there is some clarity before placing fresh orders.

This means that should a deal be reached, shipments to the US should pick up, as both importers and exporters will have certainty over the rules.

Consumer confidence

The 10% tariff, if that’s where we land, should have little direct effect on sales to the US. Whiskey is a premium product so an extra few dollars on the price of a bottle will not do much to turn away consumers already expecting to pay a premium price.

The bigger threat to Irish whiskey exports to the US is the overall strength of US consumption.

The advantage Irish whiskey has as a premium product from a price perspective is also a disadvantage when it comes to maintaining sales in a weakening economy.

Economists class consumer purchases into two different types – staples and discretionary. Consumer staples are the things that people have to spend money on, and are generally the basics needed for day-to-day living.

They are the must-haves. Consumer discretionary spending is on the nice-to-haves.

These are things like concert tickets, meals out, and Irish whiskey.

Discretionary spending tends to increase during periods of economic growth and high employment and it is the first thing that is cut during a downturn.

Should the US economy continue on the path of near-full employment then discretionary spending should hold up well.

However, if Trump’s policies start to have serious effects on the fundamentals of the US economy, Irish whiskey will be among the first victims.

Comment

The growth in Irish whiskey over the past decade has been a huge success story. Rapid expansion in any sector, however, cannot continue forever and the industry is currently in a period of uncertainty about its future, almost entirely driven by US trade policy.

Given this source, the uncertainty could be lifted with the agreement of a trade deal, which could arrive relatively soon.

Right now, in Ireland the industry is practically on pause waiting for that certainty. Whiskey is almost unique among Irish food and drink exports due to its very long shelf life.

US customers who stocked up are under no time pressure to buy more product. As we have already seen here, some distillers have paused production. While this should not be a problem for the larger distillers in the country, a prolonged pause could lead to issues for smaller distilleries which rely more on cashflow to remain in business.

This has knock-on effects through the supply chain as demand for malting barley will be hit in the short term. Growers say there are fewer contracts for growing the crop this year. Should the industry pick up again and those contracts become available, tillage farmers will be happy to grow the profitable cereal.

All that being said, the medium to long-term prospects for the industry do look bright. Exporters have been successful in opening new markets in recent years.

Sales of Irish whiskey to markets outside the US have made steady progress.

If that progress can be maintained, and a deal reached with the US on reasonable terms, then further expansion, even at a more modest pace, should be guaranteed.