US beef exports performed strongly in the first quarter of 2025 ahead of the full effects of the Trump tariffs and China not renewing export licences for US beef processors. According to the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF), the volume exported was 310,368m tonnes, which is slightly lower than the first quarter last year but the value was 2.5% higher. March volumes were 1% higher than a year ago at 109,330 tonnes.

Markets

While China and Hong Kong are now effectively closed to US beef, up to the end of March volumes were running ahead of the same period last year. In March, despite many plants being excluded after 16th of the month, volumes were up slightly on March 2024 at 15,907 tonnes. For the first three months of the year, US beef exports to China were 53,039 tonnes, 4% higher than the corresponding period in 2024, keeping China as the fourth most important market for US beef exports.

Japan remained the largest export market for US beef in March with volumes up slightly at 21,683 tonnes. South Korea remains in second place despite volumes falling from 22,105 tonnes in March last year to 20,838 tonnes. Mexico, with which the Trump Presidency had an early trade dispute, was the third largest export market again in March with volumes almost 1,000 tonnes higher than the same month last year at 18,866 tonnes. Canada, with which relations have also been strained since the start of the Trump Presidency, remained the fifth largest export market, taking 15,907 tonnes of US beef in March.

The US exported 506 tonnes of beef to the UK in March, ahead of the recent trade announcement. This will have been subject to a 20% tariff which will now be removed for up to 13,000 tonnes of US beef entering the UK annually.

Brazil pushes on

ABIEC data shows that Brazil’s beef exports in April jumped to 271,763 tonnes, the highest since the record 298,000 tonnes set last October. This was a significant increase on the 245,844 tonnes exported in March and is more than 35,000 tonnes higher than the export volumes for March 2024. The value was $4,888 per tonne, the highest since June 2023.

China remained Brazil’s largest export market for beef in April, taking 106,640 tonnes, but the most spectacular growth was in volumes to the US. In April, 47,836 tonnes of Brazilian beef were exported to the US, up from 42,113 tonnes the previous month but more than three times the 14,673 tonnes Brazil exported to the US in March 2024. Mexico was Brazil’s third largest beef export market at just under 11,000 tonnes in April with the EU next on 10,198 tonnes, followed by Hong Kong on 9,423 tonnes.

Comment – US and Brazil on different course

March was the last month for the time being when normal conditions prevailed for exports as it was April when the increased tariff rates were announced. Since then, there have been different negotiations with trading partners and suspension of the most penal tariffs. However, this will still cause disruption.

Brazil have been on a different track and as production and exports have increased, they will pick up any deficit in US supply in the second quarter of 2025. Both countries' exports are centred the on Asian market with only relatively small volumes going to Europe. This in turn means that they haven’t been direct competitors for Irish beef exports so far this year, nor are they likely to be in the remainder of 2025, though implementation of the Mercosur trade deal could change all that.