Over 710,000ha of land could be lost or severely damaged according to the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) worst-case scenario climate risk assessment undertaken as part of a new report.

This figure represents 10% of the country’s area, the EPA has said.

This was outlined at a briefing ahead of the report’s publication this Wednesday 4 June 2025, which contains Ireland’s first climate risk assessment, conducted by the EPA.

The most positive risk scenario, labelled 'limited', shows that at a minimum 7,100ha (or 1% of Ireland’s landmass) will be lost or damaged.

The two risk assessments in between would result in the loss of between 7,100ha and 71,000ha of land under the 'substantial' scenario and 71,000ha to 710,000ha removed under the 'critical' risks.

The portion of the report giving a more detailed breakdown around these figures has not yet been made available.

Coastal areas

Answering questions from the Irish Farmers Journal, Dr Conor Quinlan of the EPA said the land would mostly be lost from coastal areas.

“It would be predominately coastal and within estuarine floodplains, etc. As this is a national risk assessment. . . the object of the exercise isn’t to produce detailed maps, that would be in the flooding sectoral adaptation plan.

“We’re not producing those maps, that’s not the aim here. It’s to look at the overall regional level of impact and try [to] rank that with other risks. It’s taken into account, but not on a project level,” he said.

Quinlan also outlined that the criteria which resulted in these figures were downscaled from EU data.

“We are not estimating or even assuming that we will lose 10% of our land, we have just downscaled them from the EU CRA, so they are proportionately represented for ourselves,” he added.

Crops

The main report, as opposed to the much larger technical report not yet provided, focuses primarily on the risk to crop yields in terms of specific agricultural practices.

“Higher temperatures can stress crops, leading to reduced growth and lower yields. Heat stress can affect photosynthesis, nutrient uptake and water use efficiency, ultimately reducing the overall productivity of crops.

“Additionally, changing climate conditions can alter rainfall patterns, resulting in droughts or excessive rainfall.

“Droughts can lead to water scarcity, soil degradation and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases, while excessive rainfall can cause flooding, soil erosion, waterlogging of soils and nutrient leaching,” the report stated.

It added that both extreme heat and rain can harm crops and this “can threaten food security, increase food prices and affect the livelihoods of farmers and communities dependent on agriculture.”

About the report

The National Climate Change Risk Assessment provides the first comprehensive assessment of where, when and how climate risks are likely to affect Ireland over the coming decades.

The risks identified by the report as requiring urgent action within the next five years are damage to communications and energy infrastructure due to extreme wind, as well as damage to buildings and transport infrastructure due to extreme wind, coastal erosion and coastal flooding.

The study was undertaken by the EPA in collaboration with Government departments, State agencies and other stakeholders.

The risk assessment identifies 115 risks from projected changes in climate conditions. Of these, 43 are deemed significant risks.

The risks span all sectors of our economy, society and environment; from energy, transport and communications to water security, public health, food production and supply and ecosystems.