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The first fortnight in May was when the China – US trade spat was at its worst and it is reflected in US meat exports to the country that month.
In figures released last week by the United States Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF), beef exports to China were down 91% to just 1,398 tonnes while pork exports fell by 82% to 6,720 tonnes. Import tariffs on US pork peaked at 172% and beef tariffs peaked at 147% making trade commercially unviable for either product. These have since been reduced to 57% for pork and 32% for beef, levels which seriously reduce the competitiveness of US product in the market.
The problem for beef exports to China is made even worse by the fact that licenses for most US beef exporters to the country expired in February and March and the Chinese Government hasn’t renewed them.
Lowest monthly exports for a long time
Overall US beef exports in May were 97,266 tonnes, down 12% on last year and the lowest for almost five years. For the first five months of the year to the end of May, volumes were 5% lower than for the same period last year at 508,293 tonnes. It was a similar trend with pork. Total volume exported in May was 224,162 tonnes which was 11% lower than May last year and the lowest monthly total since September 2023.
The absence of China as a meaningful market has meant a stronger focus on other high value Asian markets by US beef exporters. There was a surge in beef export volume to South Korea, up a massive 40% compared with a year ago to 25,228 tonnes, the highest total to that market since March 2023. This brings the total for the first five months of the year to 106,867 tonnes a 10% increase on the same period last year.
Beef exports to Japan also increased, up 4% to 21,791 tonnes though the volume for the year to date is down 1% at 104,012 tonnes. Elsewhere the trend for beef exports was down with Mexico recording the largest decline in May, down 12% to 16,485 tonnes.
Pork exports
Overall pork exports also declined in May but as with beef, sales to some markets still managed an increase. Most notable was exports to Mexico which increased to 97,697 tonnes up from 91,338 tonnes in the same month last year. This is a market US exporters are watching with some anxiety. So far they have not retaliated against Trump tariffs but this could change as a 21% tariff on US imports of tomatoes is due to come into effect from tomorrow, 14 July.
Exports to Japan remained steady but there was a 10% decline in volumes to South Korea in May.
Comment – Turbulence will be normal
US meat exporters are very much exposed in international trade spats that have arisen from the Trump administration introducing a range of tariffs on imports into the country. These invariably lead to retaliation though there isn’t a uniform response by countries affected. Only China has met “fire with fire” and while there has been some cooling off in levels of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, they are still exceptionally high and frustrate trade in the process. Other countries have taken a more softly softly approach and sought to make trade deals with the US, the most successful of which so far has been the UK. It is being flagged that the EU will also achieve a deal which would be most welcomed for Irish dairy producers and exporters given the importance of the US as a market for out premium butter exports.
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