How US farmers are exposed in China trade war

The roller coaster of US import tariffs continued over the past week with the most notable feature the suspension of tariffs beyond 10% for ninety days. China were the exception to this announcement but that too was softened somewhat towards the end of last week with the announcement that technology imports from China would be excluded from the most penal tariffs.

Clearly the thinking in the administration was that phones and computers coming into the US, many of which are made in China, would become so prohibitively expensive that US consumers could no longer afford to buy them. However, there are no indications that China is prepared to reciprocate this gesture and will continue imposing tariffs on US imports as listed in Table 1.

These are the settled tariff levels for the moment at least and the Chinese authorities have indicated that they will not be increased further. The range of tariffs on different product categories reflects the fact that under World Trade Organisation Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs different tariffs apply across different categories to which the retaliatory tariffs are added. For example, Durum wheat in quota carried a 1% MFN tariff, with the retaliatory tariffs this increases to 141%. The practical effect of these huge tariff levels is that US exports to China are not commercially viable and US farmers and exporters will be looking for alternative markets.

Export categories

This will hit US farmers hard. Agricultural products are China’s main import from the US and it is also a critical export market for the US as shown in Table 2. It is the main export market for US soyabeans, worth more than half of US total exports of the product at the equivalent of €11.36bn. China accounts for 86% of US coarse grains exports, worth the equivalent of €1.12bn and while wheat exports are a smaller category, the €420m of exports to China make it the fourth largest export market for the product.

For meat and dairy, China is the third largest export market in each category. In 2024, beef exports to China were worth the equivalent of €1.4bn while pork exports were worth €1bn. Dairy exports to China were worth €510m while US poultry meat exports to China were worth €430m. Each of these categories include associated products.

Impact on China

While agri products are China’s main import from the US, they have alternative suppliers across all product categories. For beef almost three quarters of China’s beef imports were supplied by South American countries in 2024 and they, plus Australia and New Zealand, can increase their supplies. Brazil is also a major supplier of poultry meat and soyabeans to China, having increased their share during the previous lower key trade spat between China and the US in the first Trump presidency.

On pigmeat, China Customs data shows that of the 253,132 tonnes imported by China in 2024, 17,679 tonnes were supplied by the US with Brazil (70,663 tonnes) and Spain (67,167 tonnes) the biggest suppliers.

Comment

It is a well-worn cliché by this stage that there are no winners in a trade war. Even exporting countries that are likely to benefit directly from the US-China row are cautioning that even if there is short term benefit the long term risk is considerable. Irish farmers might hope that China will review its policy on suspending countries that have an atypical BSE case and enable Irish exports resume.

While the US will be looking for alternative markets for their exports, Europe is unlikely to feature prominently for meat or dairy given the EU’s non hormone policy.

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