This week USDA released what is now a twice yearly forecast on global production and trade of beef, pork and poultry meat. While the introduction makes reference to global uncertainty, it also points out that just 5% of China’s beef imports are from the US though the market accounts for 16% of US beef exports.

A further problem for US beef exporters to China is that the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) allowed the trading licenses for many US exporters to lapse in the middle of March and there is no indication when these might be restored.

Given the current astronomical level of tariffs, it probably doesn’t matter that much but it would be an issue if a resolution to the trade dispute was found.

Overall USDA forecast that China’s beef imports will slow down in 2025, increasing by just 2%. USDA believe that Australia are ideally placed to fill the gap left by the US as they each compete in the same high value market though Australia is at the opposite end of the cattle cycle with production forecast to increase this year.

USDA also highlight that the ongoing beef safeguard investigation being carried out, following a petition from the domestic industry on the harm imports were doing, has the potential to further undermine China’s demand for imported beef in the year ahead.

Beef

(All weights are carcase weight equivalent)

USDA have revised upwards their forecast for Brazilian beef production this year by 150,000 tonnes to 11.9m tonnes compared with their most recent October 2024 forecast. They are forecasting that export volumes will increase by exactly the same amount to 3.75m tonnes.

Volumes for Australia have also been revised upwards to 1.960m tonnes and US export volumes are also expected to increase from the low October forecast to 1.218m tonnes.

The USDA forecast for volumes from Argentina has been reduced significantly, down from 860,000 tonnes in October to 770,000 tonnes in the current forecast.

As for the main importers in 2025, whatever happens in China, its position as the world's main beef importer won't change.

USDA forecast that they will import 3.825 tonnes of beef this year while the US is forecast increase import volumes to 2.2m tonnes, a record high.

What will be of particular interest to Irish farmers and exporters is that the forecast for UK beef imports has also been revised upwards to 445,000 tonnes compared with 415,000 tonnes in the October forecast. This ties in with the AHDB forecast of a sharp reduction in factory cattle kill this year.

Comment

Despite US tariffs dominating global trade discussion, most of the world’s beef trade will continue business as usual in 2025.

While distant markets have the potential to impact Irish farmers in the longer term, it is what happens next door in Britain and across in mainland Europe that is most important in shaping our beef price.

If the USDA forecasters are correct, we can expect that there is an extra 30,000 tonnes of product required from imports in the UK this year and we are best placed to supply a good chunk of that.