Pressure for constitutional reform in the United Kingdom would have followed a victory for Scottish independence in the referendum of 2014, lost by the nationalists on a 55/45 margin.

But there could be renewed questioning of the constitutional arrangements arising from a completely different source, the first-past-the-post voting system and the redrawing of the political map in recent elections and opinion polls.

Following the Republic’s 1987 general election the incoming Fianna Fáil government, having bemoaned the failure of its Fine Gael/Labour predecessor to balance the budget, embarked on a fiscal tightening which included spending cuts and tax increases.

They blamed the outgoing administration for high spending which they had earlier criticised for stinginess. But no matter: Fianna Fáil survived a couple of austerity years and formed another government after the 1989 election.

In the UK, the Labour victory in 2024 came after 14 years in opposition and presented the same opportunity – blame the other crowd and take unpopular action quickly.

Instead, they dodged increases in the main revenue sources (essentially income tax and VAT) pledged to protect health spending and the main social programmes while committing to getting the public finances in order.

Their first budget included small measures to raise revenue and a few expenditure reductions, all controversial and some since diluted, combined with ambitious targets for an end to borrowing.

Economic growth

The sums never add up unless the rate of economic growth takes off, boosting tax revenue enough to close the deficit. Despite the big Labour majority, the temptation to get the bad news out of the way quickly was resisted.

The UK economy has performed sluggishly down the years and any government is liable to look foolish if it pretends that economic performance can magically be dialled upwards.

Their pre-election commitments and first budget in October has left the party in a bind

Over a few short years, the rate of economic growth is impossible to predict, never mind to control, and the targets for a reduction in borrowing were not believed where it matters, in the bond market where the UK pays a punishing 4.5% for 10-year money.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his colleagues cannot be blamed for failing to foresee the chaos which Trump’s presidency has unleashed and the international slowdown already in train, but their pre-election commitments and first budget in October has left the party in a bind. Had they bitten the bullet, there might now be a better prospect of riding out the storm and of holding power at the next election four years hence.

The formula is straightforward: after a long period in opposition, increase taxes straight away, cut spending where you can and blame the Tories.

The public might have been willing to blame the outgoing government but have instead turned to the new Reform party of Nigel Farage. Labour languish, there have been defections and the spending review just published inevitably comes up short. It will be criticised as too little, not least because the government has pledged an increased level of defence spending alongside higher targets for health. When you protect some really large spending areas, the cuts implied elsewhere become politically impossible.

New-found popularity

Opinion polls are fickle and Farage’s new-found popularity may not last. But a fundamental flaw in the UK’s constitutional architecture has been exposed.

The first-past-the-post voting system in 650 single-member constituencies means that seats can be won with a low vote share when there are many parties, far less likely in systems built around proportional representation.

In the 2024 election, Labour won 411 seats on a 33.7% share of the vote. Strict proportionality would have yielded 219. The Tories had to settle for 121 even though they polled 70% of the Labour total. They ‘should’ have won about 155. Britain’s third party, the Liberal Democrats, polled fewer votes than Farage’s Reform party but won 72 seats to Reform’s five since their vote was more concentrated, especially in the south of England.

A wide spread of a modest vote nationally loses everywhere, and parties with a concentrated vote are the winners.

Recent opinion polls show a new pattern. Reform is the biggest party with around 30% while Labour, the Conservatives and Lib Dems are bunched together in the range around 16 to 22. This makes the next election a lottery – if the outcome were 30% for the biggest party with the rest split across too many smaller competitors, winner takes all would mean a landslide for the biggest party.

PR-style alternative

Very few countries use the UK system and the British electorate turned down a PR-style alternative in a 2011 referendum instigated by the Liberal Democrats and opposed by Labour and the Tories. First-past-the-post works fine when there are just two big national parties but will precipitate a new debate on the constitution if the next election follows the instincts of an electorate disenchanted with both Labour and the Tories.